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Hi
David
A
potentially interesting article spoiled by trying to incorporate
Moore's Chasm Crossing paradigm. Incidentally, I don't really buy
Moore's argument that there is distinct and major discontinuity
in technology acquisition at the 1st standard deviation on the LHS
of a normal distribution, which probably biased me away from your
spin on the whole thing.
The
much more interesting article is about how fine grained services,
localization and n tier content aggregation will become the next
killer apps. on the internet. Your golf example is a good one, but
I could think of dozens more, many of which, would be 'spur of the
moment' things, that only wireless can satisfy, and bear in mind,
that people will pay a significant premium for 'impulse buys'. Those
special kind of Belgium chocolates your wife likes (to mollify her
over some real or perceived indiscretion); the New Zealand Sauvignon
Blanc, that you raved about to a neighbor who is coming to dinner;
the latest Harry Potter book your daughter insists on having before
accompanying you for a week-end away, and BTW its 6:00 pm and you
are supposed to be at airport by 8:00! Or you want to put down that
jerk in the bar who insists Alaska is the most easterly state in
the USA. Or you are getting a graphic example of how intense monsoonal
rain is, and you are desperate to get a taxi (which have all disappeared),
and will pay double the regular price.
Sure,
these are yuppie problems, but my mother's cousin in Stoke-on-Trent
is not going to be first in line to buy a WAP phone. These are services
that you will happily pay a premium to get NOW! WAP is the key enabling
technology for all these 'I want it now!' services. Your application
service provider, overlaid with n tiers of application service aggregators
model, conveys well, how this will occur. I'm not sure if the WAP
portals will dominate access to content. If they do, then I anticipate
localized portals. I'm reliably informed the mobile phone companies
can pinpoint your location within a few meters. Hence, not only
can they tell you where to get stuff, then can tell you the nearest
place to get it, with a little map of how to get there! Or get someone
to bring it to you!
And
back to the so called chasm; I am not a techno-geek innovator who
wants stuff cos its cool, but I will be first in line for a WAP
device (A palm pilot with wireless, rather than a phone with a big
screen) because it opens up a whole new world of services to me.
As
an aside, I would be interested in hearing how this n tier service
aggregation model impacts 'traditional' 3 tier OO architecture.
Phil
Bradley
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Hi
David
I
have a bit of a problem with this piece. You completely ignore the
vastly popular SMS messaging that must be regarded as the precursor
to WAP.
3,000,000,000.
Three billion. That is how many SMS messages are transmitted every
month via the GSM wireless standard. Who is using SMS? These are
not geeks noodling around with their cool new Nokia 7110s They are
packs of giggling teenage girls sending love notes to those cute
boys that just walked by. They are building contractors notifying
workers on site that the concrete truck will be late. They are spams
from the restaurant you just walked by announcing the afternoon
special.
And
on, and on, and on. Across every demographic, every age, every level
of technology aversion. Next month? Another 3 billion, baby.
Data
point: In Scandinavia, essentially *every* young man in his twenties
owns a mobile phone. I kid you not. It is assumed everyone you interact
with has one or has access to one.
Unfortunately
you do not see this phenomenon in the USA. You need to go to the
malls and cafes and clubs from Helsinki to Barcelona to fully understand
this truly amazing phenomenon that is anything but technology driven.
The technology is besides the point. You never see it. Poof, it's
gone. It simply melts away (as it should).
The
mobile phone in the context of the northern European GSM network
represents the first incarnation of a true (no bullshit, the real
deal) digital networked appliance. The thing Don Norman and his
ilk go on and on about. Alan Cooper's jaw would drop if he saw what
is going on over here. When will you see it in the USA? Unless the
FCC makes some major moves it will be *years*. As an American currently
based in Scandinavia I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the
sorry state of the US mobile phone system. It is completely, utterly
broken.
Cheers,
Douglass
Turner
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